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Oregon's amenities, jobs pull people in
Population - Estimates put the total at 3,628,700, with most growth in the Portland area and Central Oregon
BY PETER SLEETH
The Oregonian
Thursday, November 24, 2005

Oregon's prospering economy is luring more people into the state, with population increasing by 46,100 people in the last year, according to estimates released Wednesday by university researchers.

The new immigrants are following an established Oregon Trail: Most of the growth is rolling into the Portland area, as well as Central Oregon. Most Eastern Oregon counties appear to be holding steady, while the Willamette Valley continues its drive toward greater density.

Oregon's draw became more pronounced in the last year and likely will increase even more next year, researchers said. The reason is a healthy job market, for the most part, combined with Oregon's perceived quality of life.

"It doesn't surprise me a bit we would see our immigration go up," said Art Ayre, Oregon's employment economist. "We have had very rapid job growth over the last two years."

Oregon's population reached 3,628,700 as of July 1, compared with 3,582,600 on July 1, 2004, an increase of 1.29 percent. That is slightly more than the 1.2 percent increase of the previous year. The 2005 growth was composed of 32,000 people from out-of-state and a natural increase from births of 14,100.

Portland's population increased by 5,088, to 555,648, while Washington County continued its blazing growth to the west of the city, increasing by nearly 10,000 people.

The numbers are preliminary and will be certified in March. Oregon law requires the Population Research Center at Portland State University to prepare the estimates each year for each county and incorporated city in Oregon.

The numbers are far more than an academic exercise. Certain tax revenues collected by the state are dispersed to the local governments based on population.

Professor George C. Hough Jr. on Wednesday said the numbers illustrate few new trends beyond confirmation that a growing number of people are moving to the state. Although Hough's work does not identify where people are coming from, anecdotal information and economic studies indicate some of the growth in Portland is from young professionals from the Midwest, while Central Oregon draws Californians, as does the Oregon Coast.

The coastal numbers, however, offered surprises.

Coast growth

Despite an unprecedented residential building boom this year on the Oregon Coast, population numbers there are unremarkable. Lincoln County, for example, contains the booming towns of Lincoln City and Yachats, yet the county population only increased by five people, from 44,400 in 2004 to 44,405 as of July 1, 2005. That is likely due to a large influx of both second-home owners who are not counted as part of the permanent population and investors who live elsewhere buying property for future sales.

"I think that's probably a fair assessment," said Matt Spangler, the county's planning director. "Anecdotally, I can tell you an awful lot of the permitting activity we see in the unincorporated county is from people who don't live here or are only living here part of the time."

Reedsport, a traditional logging and fishing town on the southern Oregon Coast, went through several years of population declines until 2002, when it leveled off at 4,230 people. That number increased by nine in 2005 as a handful of retirees began moving into town, which largely has lost most of its natural resources employment.

Deshutes County

Deschutes County, with the booming cities of Bend and Redmond, continued to grow. Redmond grew from 18,100 to 20,009, while Bend grew by more than 5,000 people, from 65,210 to 70,328.

"The development we've seen recently is really strong, and these figures represent that," said Redmond Community Development Director Jim Hendryx. "The whole area continues to grow very strongly, so the population growth we see is consistent with what we're expecting."

The Portland area remains the state's growth engine. Multnomah County, the state's largest in terms of people, increased in population by 6,875, to 692,825; Clackamas County increased by 5,050, to 361,300; and Washington County increased by 9,585, to 489,785.

The growth in Washington County was approximately split between in migration and new births, unusual for Oregon's counties, Hough said. He cited a large Latino population trending toward larger families as the reason. Clackamas County, by contrast, had a natural increase of about 1,000 new babies and about 4,000 new arrivals.

Wheeler County in Eastern Oregon remained the state's least populated county at 1,550 people. It recorded no change in population.

Peter Sleeth: 503-294-4119; petersleeth@news.oregonian.com Oregonian Correspondent Matt Preusch contributed to this report.

Portland continues to heat up! The Marlins better get here fast before there is no room for them!

I predict a ten-fold increase of the Wheeler County population with the "Oregon is lost", neo-con, fundementalist christian types rushing into the only county that will gladly proclaim itself to be going back to the 20th Century (12th Century?). Tourism to a "Branson, Misouri" type village will be developed close to the only water source with enough volume.

One "mega church" will be built and will fail after a Bhagwan Shree Rajneesh like corruption scandal (hopefully no Kool-aid drinking will be involved). The new faithful will force the County to vote on Creationist doctrine in science classes which will start the next "Scopes Monkey trial". All fossils will be collected from county residents and crushed for use in the mega church parking lot.

All other Oregon counties will cry and shake their heads in dis-belief.

BB

Gotta tell my wheeler county story, we stop in Mitchell in Wheeler county and the gas station guy cant figure out how to get the squeegee to work, my friend is in the back seat rolling around laughing as another gomer comes wandering across the main street in robe and slippers

Hey, they are easy going in Wheeler County! And it took me three cars to figure out the squeegue sequence process!

The secret is to use the paper towel after each drying move. In hot weather the process becomes more complicated because the dirty water needs to be removed after each cleaning swipe. But the most important thing is: Start at the top of the window no matter the weather!!! No charge.

BB

Still a very small state. Oregon's ace in the hole is clearly growth in the Portland metro area and the Willamette valley overall. But there isn't much growth in Eugene and Salem, is there? So, it all comes down to what is happening in Portland. You guys are in a great spot to compete with other west coast cities. Gotta do it. Try not to be so "special and weird." I mean that in a friendly sense. Become a major force on the west coast and the world is yours. No reason why fly-over country cities should out-do you guys. PHX is a great place, for example, for golf.

quote:

Originally posted by twosomeca:
Oregon's ace in the hole is clearly growth in the Portland metro area and the Willamette valley overall. But there isn't much growth in Eugene and Salem, is there?

Here are the growth spots:

1. I-5 corridor from downtown Portland to Marion County (Salem);

2. Washington County;

3. Clark County Washington.

Clackamas County and the east side of Portland tend to be more anti-growth and are growing more slowly. Eugene isn't growing hardly at all --- the economy (other than the University) in Eugene has not been good recently.

I totally agree with CL with additional areas of above average growth; Deschutes County (Bend, Redmond, etc.) are seeing steady growth now for 10 years plus and there hasn't been a reduction in the migration from California (retirees, businesses, and outdoor types).

The Southern Oregon area of Medford and Ashland are growing also with California migration (retirees).

The dark horse is the east side of Portland (East County/Springwater and Damascus/Boring); these two areas are already targeted for 100,000 plus population and 20,000 plus jobs. This isn't going to be infill but managed new growth into the hills southeast of Portland with major effect placed on environmental protection for stream buffers.

Metro, the state, and two counties are earmarking alot of transportation projects for this part of town in the next few years (Powell Blvd expansion to four/five lanes out to Gresham, 172nd/Jeanne Road improvements, 182nd improvements, 242nd improvements, Foster improvements, Sunrise Corridor Phase I, I205 Light Rail). The new town of Damascus has adopted a $690,000 budget for community planning!. I have two great projects fairly close to my house (Cleveland Street update, Walking path on MAX) that will make getting around even easier. So if you think there is anti-growth pockets on the east side and Clackamas County, your'e right but their voices aren't the only ones. One example of anti-growth sentiment is the obvious comments made during the city council meeting for Damascus (neighborhoods concerned with losing the country feeling and farmers concerned about farming within an area soon to be have possible zone changes).

To proof the point about change and pro-business sentiment, Gresham businesses are going to pull together $100,000 (they already have $20,000 after one lunch meeting) to study the requirements and hash out a secession plan from Multnomah County. East County has been dissed, overlooked, and underfunded for too long. Gresham, like Hillsboro could become a county seat.

BB