The A's are NOT leaving the Bay Area

After two years of behind the scenes negotiations, the potential deal to build a new baseball stadium and mixed-used development in Fremont is officially dead. And naturally, the speculation has already begun regarding the future home of the Oakland Athletics. Will they now look to move to Sacramento? Las Vegas? Portland???

Every Portland baseball booster knows that our fair city would make a fine host for a major league baseball team. Yes, we would be one of the smaller markets… and yes, we don’t have a ton of Fortune 1000 companies here to buy all of those “necessary” luxury suites. But if you combine our vibrant central city, our pleasant weather during baseball season, our passion for sports, and our inevitable future growth, Major League Baseball would do just fine in the Rose City.

But before you get all excited about the prospect of obtaining the Oakland A’s, consider these facts:

1. Portland (and Sacramento and Las Vegas) are no shape to help bankroll a new stadium. We all know that the economy is imploding, and it is even worse in cities that are more dependent on the housing and construction industries. The Fremont deal collapsed in large part because it was dependent on the mixed-used development next door to help offset stadium construction costs.

2. Portland is (rightly) focused on Major League Soccer (MLS) right now. Merritt Paulson has been working with the city council and with community groups over the past year to drum up support for an $85 million proposal which would, essentially “right size” the sports facilities in this city. PGE Park will work much better as a 25,000 seat soccer/football only facility, and to be able to pull this off at a $40 million price tag is a steal at a time when new facilities typically run in the hundreds of millions.

The proposal would also move the Portland Beavers (the AAA baseball team) into an intimate baseball-only facility, most likely at the site of the current Memorial Coliseum (a redundant, unnecessary 50 year old money pit which sits at the nexus of downtown, two freeways, four light rail lines, and a planned streetcar route).

This proposal is a terrific move for the city and for the future of professional sports in Portland, and the timing is perfect: the Beavers desperately need a different home, Portland is a soccer-loving town, MLS is ripe for expansion, and this sports-crazed city needs another high-profile team to complement the Blazers. The last thing this carefully-crafted movement needs is the distraction of a longshot bid for Major League Baseball.

3. The A’s have superior options right now in the Bay Area – the obvious spot for the A’s is in wealthy, growing downtown San Jose. Unfortunately the Giants still own territorial rights in San Jose, but now there is talk that the A’s may be able to negotiate for those rights. The other potential spot may exist in Oakland, as locals ponder the possibilities of adding a baseball stadium onsite at the entertainment complex where the Raiders and the Warriors currently reside.

There is no active movement right now on the MLB2PDX front, and the fact that the A’s are back in limbo does nothing to change the reality of the situation. People in the media will speculate about Portland (along with Sacramento and Las Vegas which are even more ludicrous options right now). Don’t let that get you overly excited. At the same time, don’t let the fact that it WON’T happen get you down. Portland is still, in my opinion, on track to become a Major League Baseball city someday. But now is not the time.

-TCL

PS – the best spots on the Internet to keep tabs on the A’s situation are:

http://www.bizofbaseball.com; and

http://newballpark.blogspot.com/

Tuesday, in the regular task force meeting (not the later public input session), Paulson got asked about possible MLB in Portland. He reiterated earlier comments that he didn't think it penciled out, and then threw out a figure of $700 million as his ballpark estimate.

At that point, one of the committee members raised a thumb as if to indicate it might be higher.

I doubt that, and one of the reasons the proposal on the table will pencil out is because material costs are down in the economic bust, but an MLB ballpark in Portland would likely be more than one handful of multiples beyond the current proposal. Actually, even Henry Paulson would have to commit the vast majority of his funds to kick start it privately, which should tell you all you need to know for now.

I think the Sacramento site is buildable, definitely expandable, and there's an awful lot of land around it- both a parking blessing and a "darn, if only the economy merited surrounding development" bummer, so to speak. (BTW, it might have a great downtown view, but having canvassed that area, it's really not a downtown stadium. Just saying.) Of course, San Jose would be the better market if Lew Wolff can make it happen.

My takes on Sacramento and Raley Field are based on driving around the area (though not scoping it out as extensively as you did), and also from reading Marine Layer's blog. Here was his primary entry on Sacramento (from 2005, but still relevant):

http://newballpark.blogspot.co...bout-sacramento.html

The A's are not leaving the Bay Area under Lew Wolff. Should he fail to get a deal done in San Jose, however, expect him to sell the team. After that all bets are once again off.

The Raley Field "site" will not be hosting MLB anytime soon.

The A's will not leave the Coliseum unless they have a new ballpark built to their specifications to move into.

The site in Sacramento will not be Raley Field, which isn't even in Sacramento.

Several issues here:

1) Why would The Giants give up that territory for any reason? The South Bay and specifically the peninsula are staunchly supportive of the Giants, not the A's. I found this out in person when I lived in Santa Clara from 1980--1982. Nothing's changed about that reality.

2) Oakland is not a good long term suituation. The East Bay has been deteriotating for years. Many urban problems have now spread to San Leandro, San Lorenzo and Hayward. The net result is that 1960's reality: "White flight." Simply put, people don't feel safe there and the attendance figures back that up.

3) There's no viable options to build North of Oakland due to scarcity of buildable land in addition to the same suburban decay mentioned above.

4) Sacra-tomato has their own issues as mentioned above. Downtown Sacramento dosn't have one tenth of the appeal as does Portland. In addition, the weather in July and August is often oppressive in the Sacramento Valley. I agree with Lastexit, Raley Field is beautiful for baseball in April and May, but it will never be an MLB ready park.

5) Las Vegas has the highest forclosure rate in the country. Summer heat is worse than in Sacramento. And to be honest, Vegas has always had the reputation as a Disneyland for delinquency. People dont' go there for baseball and they never will.

Bottom line, I don't think there's a long term solution in the Bay Area unless the Giants are persuaded to do something against their long term interest. The Giants best choice may be to simply wait the A's out until they feel their options have been exhausted.

I'm not a businessman, but it seems the following is a reasonable possibility:

The Post Office site sits on eight blocks of buildable land. The current blueprint for PGE Park is just over four blocks. That's a tight fit, but if built correctly, a new ballpark could do the same. (Think Fenway Park) It seems that Wolff, or someone like him could make a tidy profit by building on a little more than four city blocks and building high rise or medium rise condos in the Pearl on the remaining land. (Just give the land to him and build the new Post Office elsewhere).

Six blocks of highly valuable Pearl District property? 150 million from the state? a decent chunk of change from Uncle Phil for naming rights? Seems like a winner to me.

Sorry, I just can't let the dream die.

http://newballpark.blogspot.co...league-ballpark.html

Great article on what it takes to expand a minor league facility to MLB. They are using Raley Field here but this could be applicable anywhere.