The pics of that renovated PGE are incredible. Although I will miss the ivy.

Kudos to Merritt for giving this a go. I like the renderings as well. Here are my concerns:

1. They basically said that this whole operation will be self funding and only mentioned ticket taxes. If you assume that their numbers are correct ($40 million to remodel PGE, $35 million to build Lents, combined average attendance of 750,000), you would need a ticket tax of $6 per ticket (assuming bond interest @ 6%) just to pay for the interest cost alone (not the principal) on the bonds.

2. The costs of retiring the current PGE Park debt, and a parking structure out in Lents, have not been factored into the total (this could nearly double the cost).

3. The attendance projections of 425k-475k at Lents are wildly optimistic as I've discussed ad nauseum, so any funding mechanism tied to those attendance estimates are worrisome.

4. The Lents stadium is being pitched as a redevelopment catalyst in the neighborhood. This has NEVER happened in the history of non-downtown stadiums (major or minor league). They point to the example of Round Rock which is not comparable at all. Round Rock is like Hillsboro but with more sprawl, and there is still zero development around the facility (13 years after construction).

5. Their website says that Lents is a "10 minute drive from downtown Portland". Maybe with a police escort. Otherwise count on 20 minutes, or even longer during rush hour (which is when people will be trying to get there for weeknight games).

Lents is an absolutely terrible location (and I would say the same thing if they wanted to put it in Hillsboro or Tualatin), but I'm willing to suck it up and support it (in the name of MLS) if they can produce some figures that are realistic and aren't reliant on wildly optimistic attendance projections.

maybe i'm missing something, but interpreting from the oregonian article on today's front page it sounds like paulson and the city wont even begin negotiating to build the lents park and refurbish pge unless/until mls commits to pdx early in '09...i don't know if that would be a positive or a negative for our mls efforts but at first glance it sounds good to me--i dont trust w/100 percent faith that we could hammer out a stadium deal be early '09...

James, that's exactly what Merritt is saying.

The same thing is happening in Vancouver, so Merritt is going to play this game. It's a bit risky because Montreal has infrastructure and St. Louis has funds aligned for infrastructure... but it's becoming increasingly likely that St. Louis doesn't have the investor in place they need.

http://wweek.com/editorial/3452/11803/

Additionally, posters at SCUSA have posted letters from Nick Fish, who is stating opposition to the Lents plan. Amanda Fritz is quite likely to be against it. With Adams promoting this, the Lents plan is probably comatose. Chances of revival depend on Merritt Paulson providing the majority of funding for construction.

This starts another war... but the rumors involved are complex and, in one case, contradictory. Bill Gallacher is a Calgary oil man who just bought the Winter Hawks... and one question is whether Paul Allen will drop the rent so the Hawks can play in the Rose Garden. Some say yes. My more adamant source says no. This could be threatening the future of the Winter Hawks in Portland.

However, for the city, building the ballpark makes more sense than what they likely see as throwing money down the MC moneypit... if not now, then soon. Another rumor is that Allen will come out in favor of a rebuilt hockey-ready arena on the MC site, probably 7,500 capacity.

I'm still not sure the ballpark fits the physical plot there. I'm seeing how it could be done and would be tight... the problem is that it'll likely be more expensive to prepare that land and more prone to longer debate than Lents.

We'll see, I guess.

Paul,

I know the rebuilt hockey arena has been under discussion for awhile... the thing is, how on earth can anyone justify a penny of public investment in such a facility with a straight face? Beyond the typical "no money for stadiums" crowd, you have:

-a fan base that is collapsing faster than the pre-election stock market;
-a 19,000+ seat arena next door, and a new 3,000-5,000 seat arena likely to open up nearby at PSU;
-a parade of carpetbagging owners and a poorly-run league.

For heaven's sake, if Paul Allen doesn't want to rent out the lower bowl of the RG to the Winterhawks, let them run off to Salem or wherever.

Portland was a great hockey town at one time and it could be again if the NHL came knocking, but there is no sane reason to lift a finger to help out the Winterhawks at the moment (that I can see, anyway).