Read Brian Dunham and Scott Andrews' OpEd article here on the Oregonian website.

Baseball projections are driven by realistic analysis

By Scott Andrews and Brian Dunham
In our opinion
The Oregonian
Friday, June 18, 2004

As members of the business community and supporters of the campaign to bring major league baseball to Portland, we are pleased to see increased attention to the subject as the city's stadium-finance plan takes shape. However, The Sunday Oregonian's recent article ("Portland's major league pitch is big on optimism," June 13) lacked a full presentation of many facts that are crucial to gaining a complete understanding of the issue.

One of the most common mistakes in the debate about major league baseball in Portland is to cite generic academic studies that claim the economic impact of new stadiums is minimal, as Sunday's article did in quoting a 1997 report from Andrew Zimbalist. Nearly all of these academic reports are specific to the construction of a new venue for an existing team. To engage in a credible discussion about the economic benefits derived for Portland, and Oregon, the analysis must be specific to our unique situation, which consists of a new stadium and a new team.

First, major league baseball is a proven tourism attraction. In Denver, 10 percent of Colorado Rockies attendees are tourists who stay at least one night in a Colorado hotel. At this percentage, an estimated 227,000 new overnight tourist visits to Oregon would be generated each year by major league baseball in Portland.

Second, thousands of residents from Portland's outlying areas, including Southwest Washington, would come to the ballpark to watch big-time baseball, generating economic activity at area restaurants, bars and retail establishments. Assuming 15 percent of ticket buyers of a Portland team are from the state of Washington, about 340,000 new out-of-state visits would be made to Portland each year. Even Zimbalist, in his support of the proposed Brooklyn arena in New York, acknowledges the economic benefits that come from being a border state.

And let's not forget about the arrival of 1,500 full-time jobs as a result of the stadium construction, plus another 1,885 permanent jobs created by the team and ballpark, as projected in a report by University of Oregon economics professor Larry D. Singell Jr.

Also worthy of further discussion is the city's annual 5 percent projected payroll escalation used to estimate future player income-tax revenue. While it was noted that team payrolls have increased between 11 percent and 17 percent annually on a historic basis, the article cited the last two seasons as a basis for questioning the city's projection. But a more reasonable assessment, based on the last eight years, shows an average increase of 10.25 percent a year, double the city's figure.

In the end, Portland's projections are not born out of optimism, but rather as a result of thorough analysis and reasonable assumptions. When provided with a full set of facts, Oregonians have widely embraced the campaign to bring major league baseball, jobs and economic development to Portland. The bottom line is that major league baseball is good for business and good for Oregon.

Scott Andrews is president of Melvin Mark Properties. Brian Dunham is president and CEO of Northwest Pipe Co.