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Reading between the lines
Baseball officials shed a little light on which direction relocation of the Montreal Expos is heading
by John Hunt
The Oregonian
Sunday, May 23, 2004

NEW YORK - With owners and relocation committee members sworn to secrecy, we are left with on-the-record comments from only commissioner Bud Selig and chief operating officer Bob DuPuy on the relocation of the Montreal Expos.

So we will dissect them.

But first, private conversations on Park Avenue revealed the following:

Washington, D.C., and Northern Virginia are the leading candidates, but neither is anything close to a lock.

Las Vegas, for all of its gambling and market issues, is a legitimate candidate.

Portland is still in the game, but it has to overcome the perception that a team in Portland would weaken the Seattle Mariners.

Here are the most telling comments by Selig and DuPuy, and whether they represent an advantage for any particular market, as we count down to the dual deadlines of the relocation committee's report to Selig (in less than a month) and Selig's target decision date (the July All-Star break):

DuPuy, when asked whether, in baseball's eyes, Portland's relationship to Seattle is comparable to Washington's relationship to Baltimore: "It's been discussed."

This is a real concern for Major League Baseball, one that continually is dismissed by Portland proponents. The concern is not about territorial rights, or 180 miles vs. 40 miles. It's about possibly weakening a franchise that 10 years ago was on the verge of moving.

One could argue that as many people make the trip from Portland to Seattle Mariners games as make the trip from Washington to Baltimore Orioles games. Or that the population base can more easily sustain two teams in the Baltimore-Washington area than in Portland and Seattle.

One also could argue that Washington, Northern Virginia, Norfolk, Va., and Portland each share that potential problem. Las Vegas, which is fairly isolated from a major league team, has the opposite issue -- little surrounding population from which to draw.

Are Portland fans being penalized for giving such strong support to the Northwest's team? Probably. Behind-the-scenes objections from the Mariners about placing a team in Portland -- whenever they were made -- were strong, according to one team owner.

Advantage: Not Portland.

DuPuy: "We will not comment on specific proposals."

Taken by itself, this is not surprising and is in keeping with baseball's policy since the relocation committee was created in November 2002.

But this week in New York, DuPuy and Selig launched into lengthy discussions of Las Vegas and its gambling issues.

"There's gaming in 28 states," DuPuy said. "It has become more accepted than 20 or 30 years ago. The city of Las Vegas approached us about their interest in hosting a major league baseball team and presented a very compelling offer."

Said Selig: "Life has changed. Are there conditions to Las Vegas, once we get into the final phases, that we would seriously look at? Yes, of course there are. It's premature yet."

Top baseball officials were more than willing to talk up Vegas and downplay the gambling issue.

Advantage: Las Vegas.

DuPuy, when asked if he was confident of a resolution for the Expos: "Ha! I was confident last year!"

Advantage: None.

Selig, on his criteria for selecting a relocation city: "Clearly, when you're analyzing markets, you analyze everything: the television market, the population -- within 30 miles, 60 miles, 90 miles and 120 miles. You analyze the corporate sponsorship potential.

"Anything we do or project to do should be for the overall good of the game, and you're trying not to hurt your existing franchises. But that's a judgment you have to make when you have all the facts."

The commissioner said his concentric circle theory is one of many he uses when it comes to analyzing markets, a practice that stems from the 1960s, when he spent six years of his life trying to find another team for Milwaukee.

Another is market growth: "What's the rate of growth, how fast is the area growing, what can it produce?," Selig asked. "You've got to be careful with just taking demographics."

Las Vegas is growing rapidly, but concentric circles do not help its case. Northern Virginia, meanwhile, has a revised finance plan and a new site in Loudon County, one of the fastest-growing and richest counties.

Advantage: Northern Virginia.

DuPuy, when asked if any market would be given an exclusive negotiating window: "I don't think there's enough time to do that."

Rival cities had feared that Washington, D.C., would be given a back-room deal in which baseball would say, "OK, the Expos are yours, now show us the money."

Advantage: Portland, Las Vegas.

DuPuy: "We will continue to review the materials that we have recently received to see if that modifies any of the analysis we did today in our 21/2-hour meeting."

DuPuy said that the materials that Portland and other markets sent in in the days and hours before the owners meetings still need to be analyzed by the committee. DuPuy and the rest of the committee will have to read them, follow up with Portland and the other markets, and formulate a report for Selig within the month.

DuPuy said the committee probably will not have time to make further site visits.

Advantage: Washington, Northern Virginia.

DuPuy, when asked whether all stadium financing had to be finalized before a decision is reac

"No. Obviously, before the team is transferred and before we sold the team, we're going to want to know that everything is in place necessary to complete what's been presented by the communities involved."

This was the single most important comment. Major League Baseball will decide soon -- probably by mid-summer -- on a new home for the Expos.

This plays right into the hands of Washington and Las Vegas. Those cities can quickly come up with financing -- one public and one private -- if it's given the go-ahead.

Advantage: Washington and Las Vegas.

Selig, on his legacy: "I've often said this was the last residue of contraction. People can debate for years about the advisability of it, what role it played. That's for historians to view, as I like to look at everything that way."

The commissioner is very much consumed with his legacy. He wants to leave his mark on the game again and again. He has not been afraid to make unpopular decisions, buoyed by the success of the wild card and interleague play.

If he wants to roll the dice and go with Las Vegas, then that's what will happen.

Advantage: Las Vegas.

Will the advantages of Las Vegas outweigh the obvious demographics of the Washington area? If a site is key, then Washington (RFK Stadium) and Northern Virginia (the Dulles International Airport area) have taken a step backward, while Las Vegas sits just off the Strip.

Portland has sites that are as good or better than those in the Washington area, but it remains a distant fourth in the race for the Expos.

John Hunt: 503-294-7643; johnhunt@news.oregonian.com